Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now and it continues to rank among the weakest on record, says Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now and it continues to rank among the weakest on record, says Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc.

SOLAR 'MINI-MAX':

Last month at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, solar cycle expert Doug Biesecker of NOAA announced that "Solar Maximum is here, finally." According to his analysis, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.

Spoiler: It's not very impressive. "This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," says Workshop attendee Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. To illustrate the point, he plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles since 1755:

In the composite plot, Cycle 24 is traced in red. Only a few cycles since the 18th century have have had lower sunspot counts. For this reason, many researchers have started calling the ongoing peak a "Mini-Max."

"By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet," notes Turner. "However, Doug Biesecker has presented several charts showing that most large events such as strong flares and significant geomagnetic storms occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle."

In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead. Let's just hope it is not too significant.

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Thursday, May 22, 2014