Showing posts with label National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Show all posts

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now and it continues to rank among the weakest on record, says Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc.

Space Weather
by Dr. Tony Phillips.

SOLAR 'MINI-MAX':


Last month at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, solar cycle expert Doug Biesecker of NOAA announced that "Solar Maximum is here, finally." According to his analysis, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.
Spoiler: It's not very impressive. "This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," says Workshop attendee Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. To illustrate the point, he plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles since 1755:
In the composite plot, Cycle 24 is traced in red. Only a few cycles since the 18th century have have had lower sunspot counts. For this reason, many researchers have started calling the ongoing peak a "Mini-Max."
"By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet," notes Turner. "However, Doug Biesecker has presented several charts showing that most large events such as strong flares and significant geomagnetic storms occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle."
In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead. Let's just hope it is not too significant.
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Saturday, January 4, 2014

Largest Sunspot in 12 Years/30% Chance of X-Flares

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch


   



Published on Jan 4, 2014
Giant Sunspot 1944 is turning earth facing. Draconid meteor shower.
Solar,Quake and Weather Links, http://www.bpearthwatch.com



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 Spaceweather

by Dr. Tony Phillips.

GIANT SUNSPOT:

Sunspot AR1944, which appeared on January 1st, is one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. It's so big, people are noticing it as a naked-eye blemish on the solar disk. Daisuke Tomiyasu sends this picture from Higashinada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan:
"Sunspot 1944 was visible at sunrise on January 4th," says Tomiyasu. "I combined three exposures of 1/15sec, 1/100sec, and 1/640sec to create this HDR (high dynamic range) image."
Aside: Look carefully at the full-sized picture. There is a red fringe on the bottom of the sun and a green fringe on top. That's real. The colorful fringes are caused by refraction in Earth's atmosphere. The effect is explained here.
Although the sunspot has been relatively quiet and stable since it first appeared on New Year's Day, a region of this size has the potential to produce significant activity. Indeed, NOAA forecasters, who say they are keeping a close eye on this behemoth, estimate a 75% chance of M-flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 4th.  

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 Spaceweather

by Dr. Tony Phillips.

GREEN VORTEX OVER SWEDEN:

For the second day in a row, a solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking intermittant geomagnetic storms and auroras around the Arctic Circle. Last night, Northern Lights tour guide Chad Blakley photographed a luminous green vortex over Sweden's Abisko National Park:
"Tonight was one of those nights that makes being an aurora photographer the best job in the world," says Blakley. "The lights started around 5:00 PM and continued well into the night. I had the pleasure of spending the evening with Peter Richards, a representative of National Geographic student photography expeditions. At one point during our night under the stars I heard him say that the display was the most amazing thing he had ever seen in his life - I couldn't agree more!"
NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of more polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 4th as the solar wind continues to blow.
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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Large Debris Around the Sun.Update.

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch·


   


 
Published on Jan 2, 2014
2 large objects caputured on Lasco C2 During a solar flare.
Solar,Quake and Weather Links....http://www.BPEarthWatch.com
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/bpearthw...



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Spaceweather

SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:
The movie shows a dark filament of plasma racing away from the blast site, but most of the material fell back to the stellar surface. Nevertheless, the explosion did produce a CME that could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field later this week. NOAA analysts are still evaluating this possibility.
The M9-flare of New Year's Day followed close on the heels of an M6-flare on New Year's Eve. Sunspot AR1936 produced both explosions. The New Year's Eve event produced a minor, slow-moving CME that is not expected to disturb Earth's magnetic field if and when it does arrive.
Sunspot AR1936 is active, but new sunspot AR1944 looks even more potent. The behemoth active region emerged over the sun's southeastern limb on Jan 1st:
Because of foreshortening near the sun's limb, the complexity of AR1944's magnetic field is still unknown. The sheer size of the sunspot, however, suggests it is capable of strong flares. The emergence of AR1944 combined with the ongoing activity from AR1936 has prompted NOAA forecasters to raise the odds of eruptions on Jan. 2nd to 70% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares.
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Saturday, December 28, 2013

Our Solar System is Moving thru Heavy Debris.

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch


   



Published on Dec 28, 2013
2 Large Solar Blast. Fireball Reports Coming in from the UK.
Solar,Quake and Weather Links http://www.BPEarthWatch.Com
http://amsmeteors.org/fireball_event/... http://lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot...

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Spaceweather.com

MINOR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
Energetic protons are swarming around Earth on Dec. 28th following a magnetic eruption near the western limb of the sun: movie. The ongoing radiation storm ranks S1 on NOAA storm scales, which means it is a relatively minor storm with little effect on spacecraft and high-altitude aviation
Read More Here

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Spaceweather.com

CRACKLING SUNSPOT:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
AR1936 is waking up. The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions, yet it has been quiet for days. Now AR1936 is beginning to crackle with flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from an almost-M-class flare at 1800 UT on Dec. 28th:
Because the sunspot is facing Earth, any flares emanating from it are going to be geoeffective. So far, the extreme ultraviolet "crackles" have produced only minor waves of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. Earth-effects will increase, however, if the activity continues to intensify.
Read More Here
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Thursday, December 5, 2013

How did dozens of pilot whales get so seriously stranded in Florida's Everglades National Park?

How whales lose their way: Toxins, tides and other troubles

Video: A race to save a group of stranded pilot whales in a remote part of the Florida Everglades continues Thursday. NBC’s Mark Potter reports.
How did dozens of pilot whales get so seriously stranded in Florida's Everglades National Park? This week's marine mammal drama raises questions about the peculiar biology and sociology of short-finned pilot whales, as well as factors ranging from disease outbreaks to astronomy.
How common is it to have wayward whales?
"These sorts of strandings with pilot whales are not uncommon," said Phillip Clapham, who heads the Cetacean Assessment and Ecology Program at the National Marine Mammal Laboratory in Seattle. The most recent whale stranding in the Everglades was back in 1995, but about 20 whales were beached elsewhere on the Florida coast in 2011, and again last year.

This time around, 51 whales wound up stranded: As of Thursday afternoon, 11 whales were found dead or had to be euthanized. About 35 were alive and making their way offshore, said Blair Mase, a fisheries stranding coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She said that left about five missing whales. At least some of those whales may have died and sunk beneath the surface.
What causes the whales to lose their way?
Lots of factors can play a part. "Every time you throw in one more element, you increase the chance of stranding," Clapham said.

For example, researchers say parasites or infections can confuse the whales' sense of navigation. Pilot whales can suffer from morbillivirus, a strain that's related to the virus implicated in this year's dolphin die-off. Clapham doubts that virus caused this week's strandings. Nevertheless, biologists in Florida have taken tissue samples from the 11 dead whales, and they'll be studying those samples for signs of toxins over the weeks and months ahead.
Human activity has the potential to confuse whales as well — perhaps through sonar or seismic disruptions, or interaction with fisheries. Those causes also seem unlikely in the Everglades case. The most likely factors are environmental: shifts in currents, changes in the underwater terrain, a turnabout in the weather, or perhaps the influence of tides.
Read More and Watch Video Here
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 photo dozensofstrandedPilotWhalesinFloridaDec5th2013-2_zps63d5c762.jpg
  00:32

NPR

Some Stranded Whales In Fla. Moving Out To Sea



Wildlife officials in southwest Florida who are struggling to save dozens of beached pilot whales say there's hope that at least some of the animals might escape after they spotted at least 20 of them swimming in deeper water.
The Associated Press reports:
"Blair Mase, a fisheries stranding coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said a Coast Guard helicopter found two pods of whales in about 12 feet of water, 'significantly north' of their previous location in Everglades National Park. The short-finned pilot whale is a deep-water species that cannot survive long in the shallows."
, the stranding of about 45 pilot whales was first noticed on Tuesday in a remote area of Florida's Everglades.
NPR's Greg Allen reports from Miami that more than 30 people and about 15 boats are involved Thursday in an ongoing operation to redirect the whales.
Read More Here
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NBC News

Whale rescue effort continues in Florida's Everglades as pods move to deeper waters

A pod of more than 30 stranded pilot whales have moved into deeper water. NBC's Mark Potter reports.  
Pods of 35 stranded pilot whales were moving into deeper waters of Florida’s Everglades National Park, raising hopes for their survival, officials said Thursday.
Three pods were located nine miles north of their original location on the Gulf of Mexico side of the park and moving offshore, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration fisheries official Blair Mase said at a Thursday afternoon teleconference, adding that the animals were in 12 feet of water by midafternoon.
Mase said the whales may defy the odds and reach their normal deep-ocean range.
By Thursday afternoon, 11 whales had been found dead and five others were unaccounted for, according to Mase.

The whales had been stranded in a remote area of the park near Highland Beach, more than 20 miles from waters deep enough to support them.
Earlier in the day, the U.S. Coast Guard had spotted two pods of whales “significantly north” in 12 feet of water swimming offshore near Seminole Point, Mase said.
The movement was a “rare occasion” and an encouraging sign, Mase said. She said the organization was prepared for the worst as mass strandings are often difficult to reverse.
“They’re still out of their normal home range,” she said, adding that the whales may be suffering from dehydration and malnutrition.
"They need to be in deep water in order to feed. If we can’t get them out, they could begin to be starving themselves," said Linda Friar, spokesman for Everglades National Park.
Citing a similar mass stranding in the mid-90s, Mase said, “We did have animals strand in the park area and they split up and groups were further south, but they all ended up stranding eventually.”
As a part of the new rescue efforts, teams from NOAA, the National Park Service and state wildlife organizations used noises, including aluminum pipes and engines, in an attempt to steer the whales away from the shallows.
“This particular area is extremely unique, it’s not herding them out of a lagoon,” Mase said early Thursday. “We’re herding them miles and miles. It’s very tricky.”

Read More and Watch Video Here

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Saturday, November 9, 2013

Largest 'dolphin measles' outbreak in history kills 753 and threatens whales as Bottlenose herds migrate south




US East Coast: dolphins dying in record numbers of viral infection


US East Coast: dolphins dying in record numbers of viral infection

According to America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a whopping 753 bottlenose dolphins washed up dead on the Atlantic coast from New York to Florida between July 1 and November 3.

This represents a roughly tenfold increase in the number of dolphins that would typically turn up dead along the East Coast during this four-month period.
The killer is a measles-type virus which causes fatal pneumonia and brain inflammation.
The previous similar outbreak occurred in 1987 and 88, resulting in 740-plus dolphin strandings.
Officials say the current die-off is only halfway through its expected time frame, and the final beach death toll in the bottlenose population may climb to around 1,500.
And without a way to vaccinate the wild population, there is little officials can do but collect the carcasses and examine them. The Virginia Aquarium alone has performed necropsies on 333 dead dolphins.
Scientists have already speculated about a possible link between marine die-offs and phenomena like climate change and human-produced pollution. 
Al-Jazeera America, AFP

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Dolphin virus kill in U.S. East soars

AFP-JIJI



The deadliest known outbreak of a measleslike virus in bottlenose dolphins has killed a record number of the mammals along the U.S. Atlantic coast since July, officials said Friday.
A total of 753 bottlenose dolphins have washed up from New York to Florida from July 1 until Nov. 3, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. That is more than 10 times the number of dolphins that would typically turn up dead along East Coast beaches, said Teri Rowles, program coordinator of the NOAA Fisheries Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program.
“Historic averages for this same time frame, same geographic area is only 74, so you get an idea of the scope,” she told reporters.
The toll is also higher than the more than 740 strandings in the last major Atlantic morbillivirus outbreak in 1987-1988.
And they have come in a much shorter time period, leading officials to anticipate this event could get much worse.
“It is expected that the confirmed mortalities will be higher,” Rowles said. “If this plays out similar to the ’87-88 die-off, we are less than halfway through that time frame.”

Read More Here

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Largest 'dolphin measles' outbreak in history kills 753 and threatens whales as Bottlenose herds migrate south

  • Hundreds of dolphins have washed up on East Coast beaches since July
  • Researchers say the problem hasn't stopped and that Bottlenose dolphins threaten to spread the disease during their yearly migration south
  • The bodies of five whales have also washed ashore, and may be suffering from the same measles-like virus
  • Current outbreak of morbillivirus is largest in history, recently eclipsing previous outbreak in the late 80s which killed 740 dolphins
By Steve Nolan and Ashley Collman
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An outbreak of a measles-like virus affecting Bottlenose dolphins has become the largest in history - resulting in 753 dolphins washing up on beaches along the East Coast since July.
And it's only getting worse. As Bottlenose herds migrate south for the winter, they may spread morbillivirus to local groups in Florida.
The only other time an outbreak this bad happened was between August 1987 and April 1988 when the virus killed 740 dolphins. The current outbreak has already exceeded that death toll and if it plays out on the same time frame - it isn't even halfway over.

Outbreak: Since July, 753 dolphins have washed up dead on East Coach beaches, most having died form a strain of a measles-like virus
Outbreak: Since July, 753 dolphins have washed up dead on East Coach beaches, most having died form a strain of a measles-like virus


Spreading: Researchers now fear that the outbreak will get worse with herbs moving south for the winter. Above, researchers conduct a necropsy on a dead dolphin in Virginia Beach, Virginia in August
Spreading: Researchers now fear that the outbreak will get worse with herbs moving south for the winter. Above, researchers conduct a necropsy on a dead dolphin in Virginia Beach, Virginia in August


Largest in history: The current outbreak has already eclipsed the last largest outbreak of morbillivirus which killed 740 dolphins between August 1987 and April 1988
Largest in history: The current outbreak has already eclipsed the last largest outbreak of morbillivirus which killed 740 dolphins between August 1987 and April 1988


While the virus hasn't impacted other species of dolphins in the North and Mid-Atlantic, there is evidence that it may be killing some whales after the bodies of three humpback whales and two pygmy whales were recently found decaying on beaches.
Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) haven't been able to confirm yet whether these whales were suffering from the same virus since their bodes were 'very decomposed'.
Teri Rowles, of the NOAA Fishers Marine Mammal Stranding Response Program, said in a conference call today that the number of dead beached whales is 'slightly' elevated' from usual but that it's too early to know if it's an outbreak in the whale population.

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Dolphin-killing virus reaches Florida, and is infecting whales, too



Nov. 8, 2013 at 3:11 PM ET

Wild bottlenose dolphins play off the bow of a sportfishing boat Friday, Aug. 8, 2008, off the Florida Keys near Islamorada, Fla. (AP Photo/Florida Ke...
Michael Newman / Florida Keys News Bureau via AP 
Wild bottlenose dolphins, off the Florida Keys near Islamorada, Fla.
The bottlenose dolphin die-off that began in July has been traveling steadily south with migrating Atlantic herds, and now diseased and dead dolphins are turning up in Florida. The culprit, a measles-like virus, has claimed 753 victims and counting, making this the worst outbreak ever recorded. Recently, the bug has also been spotted in two species of whale.
Three humpback whales and two pygmy whales, stranded and decaying, tested positive for the dolphin morbillivirus, preliminary sequencing has confirmed. NOAA researchers are doing more tests to find out if it was the virus, usually rare in these animals, that killed them.
"Most of them are very decomposed," Teri Rowles, of the NOAA Fishers Marine Mammal Stranding Response Program, told reporters on a teleconference call Friday. This has made observing the appearance of the disease in tissue samples harder, she said.
"Slightly elevated" stranding numbers for whales have been recorded in New York and Delaware, but it is too early to say if there is an outbreak. Researchers have tested three other marine mammal species for the virus: Common dolphins, spotted dolphins and harp seals sampled in various locations off the East coast seem free of the infection so far.
Meanwhile, the bug continues to take its toll on bottlenose herds. The last great die-off — classified by NOAA as an Unusual Mortality Event — killed about 740 dolphins off the Atlantic coast between August 1987 and April 1988. If this year's outbreak follows the same pattern, "we are less than half way through the time frame" the disease will take to fizzle out, Rowles said, and the death toll has already crossed that historical mark.
Resident Florida bottlenose herds could catch the virus, which spreads through close contact or shared air, Rowles said. Researchers are studying how much the local hosts interact with the visiting migrants, but they can't stop the virus from hopping.
"There is no vaccine that can be deployed for a large bottlenose dolphin population or any cetacean species," Rowles said. "Currently there is nothing that can be done to prevent the infection spreading, or prevent animals that get infected from having severe clinical disease."

Read more Here...........

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