Showing posts with label Sunspot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunspot. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

Earth Watch Report  -  Solar Activity


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Space Weather

by Dr. Tony Phillips.

GROWING CHANCE OF FLARES:

Sunspot AR2002 poses a growing threat for solar flares. Since the week began, the active region has more than tripled in size. It now has more than a dozen dark cores and sprawls across 100,000 km of solar terrain. Karzaman Ahmad sends this picture from the Langkawi National Observatory in Malaysia:
"AR2002 is so large," says Ahmad, "that I was able to photograph it using an ordinary 11-inch Celestron telescope capped with a Thousand Oaks Glass Filter." The exceptionally crisp image shows thousands of boiling granules surrounding the sunspot's dark cores. Each granule is about the size of Texas.
A 48-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot's development:
The rapid growth of AR2002 has destabilized its magnetic field, which makes it more likely to erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

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Monday, January 6, 2014

Giant Sunspot 1944/Now X-Flare Capable/Still Growing.

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch


  Giant Sunspot 1944/Now X-Flare Capable/Still Growing. photo GiantSunspot1944NowX-FlareCapableStillGrowing_zps8e22b8d2.jpg  



Published on Jan 5, 2014
Extreme Cold Weather Warning. National Weather Service http://www.weather.gov/


 
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National Weather Service

Bitterly Cold Temperatures and Dangerous Wind Chills Will Continue to Move South and East through the Early Part of the Week

Cold temperatures and gusty winds associated with an arctic airmass will continue dangerously cold wind chills as far south as Brownsville, Texas and central Florida. This arctic airmass will affect the eastern two-thirds of the country on Monday as a sharp cold front moves towards the East Coast. The cold temperatures will remain in place through mid-week before a warming trend begins.
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Hudson to Baltimore Canyon Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87W Gulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson Bank N Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine Sanctuary W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77W Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77W Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W Bahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal Bank Atlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60W Caribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman Basin Caribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman Basin Caribbean approaches to the Windward Passage Atlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward Passage Cape Fear to 31 N Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon Baltimore Canyon to the Hague Line South of New England Georges Bank Gulf of Maine Newport/Morehead City, NC Brownsville, TX Corpus Christi, TX Houston/Galveston, TX New Orleans, LA Lake Charles, LA Mobile, AL Tallahassee, FL Tampa, FL Miami, FL Key West, FL Florida Keys Miami, FL Melbourne, FL Jacksonville, FL Charleston, SC Wilmington, NC Baltimore/Washington, DC Wakefield, VA Philadelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJ New York, NY Boston, MA Gray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NM Waters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NM Waters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NM Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin Northern Michigan Northern Michigan Northern Michigan East Central Wisconsin - Green Bay East Central Wisconsin - Green Bay Southern and Southeastern Wisconsin Northeastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - Chicago Northern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio Southwestern Michigan Northeast Michigan - Gaylord Northeast Michigan - Gaylord Northeast Michigan - Gaylord Southeastern Michigan - Detroit Southeastern Michigan - Detroit Southeastern Michigan - Detroit Northern Ohio Western New York - Buffalo Western New York - Buffalo Northern Michigan Point Conception To Guadalupe Island Point Arena to Point Conception Point St. George to Point Arena Cape Lookout to Point St. George Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout Los Angeles, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CA Eureka, CA Medford, OR Portland, OR Seattle, WA Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area Los Angeles Area South Central California San Francisco Area Western Nevada North Central California Northwest California Coast Southwest Oregon and Northern California Northeast Oregon and Southeast Washington Northwest Oregon Northwest Washington Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho Southern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las Vegas Southwestern California - San Diego Central Arizona and California Deserts Southeast Arizona Northern Arizona Utah Northern and Northeastern Nevada Southwestern Idaho and Eastern Oregon Southeastern Idaho Western Montana and Central Idaho Central Montana - Great Falls Northeastern Montana Southeastern Montana Western Wyoming Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska Northeastern Colorado Western Colorado and Eastern Utah Southeastern Colorado Northern and Central New Mexico Southern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El Paso Texas and Oklahoma Lubbock and South Plains Texas Western Texas and Southeastern New Mexico Western South Dakota and Northeastern Wyoming Northwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - Goodland Central Nebraska - North Platte North Central Kansas and South Central Nebraska Southeastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern Iowa Northern and Northeastern South Dakota Western North Dakota Eastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha Valley Northeastern Kansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern Kansas - Dodge City Central Oklahoma Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas Dallas and Fort Worth Central Texas - San Angelo Austin and San Antonio Texas Corpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo Texas Southern Texas Texas - Houston/Galveston Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana Northern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - Shreveport Arkansas Southwestern Missouri Northwestern Missouri Central Iowa Southern Minnesota Northeastern North Dakota and Northwestern Minnesota Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin Southwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast Iowa Eastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad Cities Eastern Missouri - West Central Illinois Western Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - Memphis Central Mississippi Southeastern Louisiana Middle Tennessee Northern Alabama Central Alabama Mobile - Pensacola West Central Florida East Central Florida Panhandle of Florida and Southwestern Georgia Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia Northern and Central Georgia Low Country of South Carolina and Georgia Northeastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - Wilmington Central South Carolina and CSRA Western North Carolina and Northwest South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Central Kentucky Southern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western Kentucky Central and East Central Illinois Central Indiana Northeastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - Chicago Southern and Southeastern Wisconsin East Central Wisconsin - Green Bay Northern Michigan Northeast Michigan - Gaylord Northeast Michigan - Gaylord Southeastern Michigan - Detroit Southwestern Michigan Northern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio Southwestern Ohio Northern Kentucky West Virginia Western Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North Carolina Central North Carolina - Raleigh Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North Carolina Washington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West Virginia Western Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western Maryland Northern Ohio Central Pennsylvania New Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern Pennsylvania New York City and Surrounding Areas South Central New York and Northeastern Pennsylvania Western New York - Buffalo Eastern New York and Western New England Areas Boston and Surrounding Areas Northern Vermont and New York Southern Maine and New Hampshire Northern Maine Juneau, AK Fairbanks, AK Anchorage, AK Western US Arctic Offshore Eastern US Arctic Offshore Bering Sea offshore 171 degrees West to 180 degrees and north of 56 degrees North Bering Sea offshore 171 degrees West to 180 degrees and south of 56 degrees North Pribilof Islands (St. Paul and St. George) Bering Sea offshore east of 171 degrees West Gulf of Alaska offshore north of 57 degrees North and west of 144 degrees West Gulf of Alaska offshore south of 57 degrees North north of 55 degrees North and west of 144 degrees West Gulf of Alaska north of 55 degrees North and east of 144 degrees West Juneau, AK
Click on the map above for detailed alerts or
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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Large Debris Around the Sun.Update.

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch·


   


 
Published on Jan 2, 2014
2 large objects caputured on Lasco C2 During a solar flare.
Solar,Quake and Weather Links....http://www.BPEarthWatch.com
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/bpearthw...



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Spaceweather

SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:
The movie shows a dark filament of plasma racing away from the blast site, but most of the material fell back to the stellar surface. Nevertheless, the explosion did produce a CME that could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field later this week. NOAA analysts are still evaluating this possibility.
The M9-flare of New Year's Day followed close on the heels of an M6-flare on New Year's Eve. Sunspot AR1936 produced both explosions. The New Year's Eve event produced a minor, slow-moving CME that is not expected to disturb Earth's magnetic field if and when it does arrive.
Sunspot AR1936 is active, but new sunspot AR1944 looks even more potent. The behemoth active region emerged over the sun's southeastern limb on Jan 1st:
Because of foreshortening near the sun's limb, the complexity of AR1944's magnetic field is still unknown. The sheer size of the sunspot, however, suggests it is capable of strong flares. The emergence of AR1944 combined with the ongoing activity from AR1936 has prompted NOAA forecasters to raise the odds of eruptions on Jan. 2nd to 70% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares.
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Saturday, December 28, 2013

Our Solar System is Moving thru Heavy Debris.

BPEarthWatch BPEarthWatch


   



Published on Dec 28, 2013
2 Large Solar Blast. Fireball Reports Coming in from the UK.
Solar,Quake and Weather Links http://www.BPEarthWatch.Com
http://amsmeteors.org/fireball_event/... http://lunarmeteoritehunters.blogspot...

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Spaceweather.com

MINOR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
Energetic protons are swarming around Earth on Dec. 28th following a magnetic eruption near the western limb of the sun: movie. The ongoing radiation storm ranks S1 on NOAA storm scales, which means it is a relatively minor storm with little effect on spacecraft and high-altitude aviation
Read More Here

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Spaceweather.com

CRACKLING SUNSPOT:

by Dr. Tony Phillips.
AR1936 is waking up. The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions, yet it has been quiet for days. Now AR1936 is beginning to crackle with flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from an almost-M-class flare at 1800 UT on Dec. 28th:
Because the sunspot is facing Earth, any flares emanating from it are going to be geoeffective. So far, the extreme ultraviolet "crackles" have produced only minor waves of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. Earth-effects will increase, however, if the activity continues to intensify.
Read More Here
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