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Increased drought portends lower future Midwestern U.S. crop yields
May 1, 2014
Source:
North Carolina State University
Summary:
Increasingly
harsh drought conditions in the US Midwest's Corn Belt may take a
serious toll on corn and soybean yields over the next half-century,
according to new research. Corn yields could drop by 15 to 30 percent,
according to the paper's estimates.
Increasingly
harsh drought conditions in the U.S. Midwest's Corn Belt may take a
serious toll on corn and soybean yields over the next half-century,
according to research published today in the journal Science.
Corn yields could drop by 15 to 30 percent, according to the paper's estimates; soybean yield losses would be less severe.
North
Carolina State University's Roderick Rejesus, associate professor of
agricultural and resource economics and a co-author of the Science
paper, says that corn and soybean yields show increasing sensitivity to
drought, with yields struggling in dry conditions in Iowa, Illinois and
Indiana during the 1995 to 2012 study period.
"Yield increases
are getting smaller in bad conditions," Rejesus said. "Agronomic and
genetic crop improvements over the years help a lot when growing
conditions are good, but have little effect when growing conditions are
poor, like during droughts."
U.S. corn and soybeans account for
approximately 40 and 35 percent of global production, respectively,
making the results important to the world's food supply.
Midwest hot, dry spell brings back drought worries
.
DAVID PITT August 29, 2013
DES
MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A growing season that began unusually wet and cold
in the Midwest is finishing hot and dry, renewing worries of drought and
its impact on crops.
Temperatures soared to records in recent
days in parts of the region, reaching nearly 100 degrees in some areas.
The heat wave struck many farm states — from the Dakotas to Wisconsin,
down through Missouri — that have seen too little rain this growing
season.
"It's about the worst case scenario we could have with
these high temperatures and the lack of water with soil moisture
declining," said Roger Elmore, an agronomy professor at Iowa State
University.
A wet, cool spring delayed planting and slowed crop
growth — but it also replenished soil moisture in many crop producing
states, causing some of last year's widespread drought to retreat. The
rain stopped in July in many of those states, however, and as the soil
dried out, the heat set in and stressed corn and soybean crops.
The
southeast Iowa city of Burlington, which is surrounded by corn fields,
had its wettest spring on record at 19.23 inches of precipitation,
nearly 8 inches above normal. Yet it's now on track to have its driest
summer on record, with only 3.86 inches so far, 8.41 inches below
normal.
Wayne Humphries farms about 1,000 acres about 45 miles
north of Burlington at Columbus Junction. He grows corn and soybeans and
raises hogs.
View gallery."
File - In this Aug. 27, 2013, file photo an ear of corn hangs on a withered stalk in Farmingdale, Il …
He
said he delayed planting by about 30 days because of wet fields and now
is watching the lower leaves of cornstalks turn brown from lack of
moisture. He hasn't seen a measurable rain for 30 days.
Soybean plants are suffering too as seeds are developing in the pods.
"I
have solace in the fact that we did everything we could and we did it
to the best of our ability and now whatever happens, happens," he said.
"It's sort of a philosophical moment."
Expanding U.S. Drought, Excessive Heat Hurt Iowa Corn, Soy Crops
By Jeff Wilson - Aug 29, 2013 7:12 PM CT
High heat and little rain during the past week led to an unusual, quick expansion of drought conditions in Iowa and Illinois, damaging crops in the biggest U.S. corn- and soybean-growing states.
About 25 percent of Iowa had a moderate drought on Aug. 27, up from 7.9 percent a week earlier, while Illinois
jumped to 20 percent from none, the U.S. Drought Monitor said yesterday
in a report. Parts of Iowa received less than 25 percent of normal
rain during the past 60 days, and much of Illinois got less than half
of normal since June 30, data from the High Plains Regional Climate
Center show.
After a wet May and June delayed planting, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture cut its soybean-crop forecast by 4.8 percent
on Aug. 12 and reduced its corn estimate for a third straight month.
July was the 20th coldest in 119 years in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
and Iowa, National Weather Service data show. Soybean futures are up 17
percent from an 18-month low on Aug. 7 on forecasts for dry weather,
and corn rose 7.5 percent from a 35-month low on Aug. 13.
“The
heat and drought are speeding crop development and reducing yield
potential daily,” Roger Elmore, an agronomist at Iowa State University
in Ames, said in a telephone interview. “We are skipping over critical
stages of development that probably can’t recover even if temperatures
cool and a little rain falls.”
While the crops need hot weather to develop, temperatures that approached 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) from Nebraska to Indiana
in the past five days can cut corn yields at least 3 percent a day
while reducing the number of seeds and seed weight in soybeans, Elmore
said.
Yield Loss
Cool weather during the first 19 days of
August masked the stress that the dry spell was causing to crops over
most of the Midwest, Planalytics Inc. said in a report
yesterday. The epicenter of the crop damage is in Iowa, based on the
vegetative growth index that the forecaster constructs biweekly from
satellite images.
