Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Intense Cold Blast Hits Midwest; Significant Winter Storm Expected in the Deep South

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on January 27, 2014

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The intense winter of 2013 - 2014 over the Eastern U.S. adds another remarkable cold blast to its resume this week, as a new outbreak of Arctic air surges southwards from Canada. Temperatures of -24°F and colder were common in northern Minnesota on Monday morning, and strong winds were bringing dangerous below-zero wind chills to 23 states. The core of the cold air will thrust southeastward on Monday and Tuesday, and more than half of the contiguous U.S. will experience temperatures 15°F - 30°F below normal. This cold blast will be just as widespread as the cold wave three weeks ago, but about 5° warmer. In Chicago, where the winter of 2013 - 2014 ranked as the 13th coldest winter on record for the period December 1 - January 25, the temperature fell below zero at 6 am CST Monday morning, and may remain below zero until late morning on Wednesday, a period of up to 50 consecutive hours. This would rank near 4th place for the longest stretch of below-zero temperatures on record. The 36 consecutive hours Chicago was below zero three weeks ago was not quite a top-ten below zero streak.

Figure 1. Blizzard conditions in Woodbury, MN on Sunday, January 26, 2014. Image credit: Wunderphotographer 26mileman.

Nasty ice storm for the Deep South
An area of low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast over the next two days, moving east-northeast to a position off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday night. With cold air firmly entrenched over the deep south, a significant winter storm is expected from Southern Louisiana to Eastern North Carolina. The anti-fun starts in New Orleans Monday night, when rain will change over to freezing rain. Ice accumulations of 1/4" - 1/2" are possible along a swath from Southeast Louisiana through Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, the Northwest Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina, and Eastern North Carolina though Wednesday morning. Snows of 2 - 4" are possible just to the north of the freezing rain swath. This storm has the potential to cause significant damage to trees and power lines, resulting in widespread power outages. Travel will be very dangerous in the areas affected by the heaviest freezing rain and snow.

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National Weather Outlook

Recent U.S. Snowfall and Snow Depth Maps

Snowfall maps are available for the most recent 1, 2, 3 and 7-day period by state or for the entire Contiguous U.S. Current snow depth maps are also available. (Posted accumulations may underestimate actual accumulations due to missing observations.)

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Potentially Major Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Ice to Gulf Coast, Georgia and Carolinas

By Nick Wiltgen Published: Jan 27, 2014, 0:43 PM EST weather.com

Winter Storm Ahead for South?

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Winter Storm Ahead for South?
Snow and Ice for the Deep South
ANOTHER Arctic Blast on the Way

We are watching for a potentially major winter storm to affect a long swath of the Deep South this week – including places better known for their beaches, balmy breezes and hurricanes. This will include some of the areas affected by Winter Storm Kronos just last week – but it includes millions of people farther east as well.

Winter Storm Alerts

INTERACTIVE WINTER ALERTS

The threat stems from the combination of a bitterly cold arctic air mass plunging southward behind a sharp cold front, while moisture streams northward from the Gulf Coast. As the moisture crosses into the cold air behind the front, a swath of frozen and freezing precipitation is likely to break out.
(FORECAST: Arctic Blast This Week)
The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches, warnings and advisories from southeast Texas eastward along the Gulf Coast through Georgia, the southern half of South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia. For Charleston, S.C. and Savannah, Ga., it's the first winter storm watch issued for those two cities since Feb. 11, 2010. For Houston, it's the second time with a winter storm watch in just five days.
Let's step through the forecast and get into the details and uncertainties.

Long Stretch of Ice and Snow

Tuesday Forecast

Tuesday Night Forecast

Wednesday Forecast

The latest blast of arctic air, already bursting south into the Midwest, will reach the Deep South Monday night. Temperatures should be at or below freezing by Tuesday morning along the Gulf Coast from Houston to Pensacola, Fla., as well as portions of the Carolina coast.
As Tuesday wears on, a broad zone of rising air will develop across the entire Gulf Coast (except for southwest Florida) and the Atlantic Coast of the Southeast, along and behind the arctic cold front. This will allow an elongated area of precipitation to develop from South Texas all the way to the Carolinas.
Since much of this precipitation will be falling over areas where near-ground temperatures will hover below freezing, the result will be a mess of wintry precipitation.
Exactly which form the precipitation takes will depend on temperatures several thousand feet aloft. In some areas, the entire atmosphere will be below freezing, and those areas will be vulnerable to snow. In areas closer to the Gulf Coast, there is likely to be a layer of above-freezing air above the ground, setting the stage for sleet and/or freezing rain.
But model projections disagree on exactly how far south the all-snow scenario will get – not just Tuesday, but for the duration of the storm. For that matter, it is not entirely clear just how far north (inland) the wintry precipitation will fall. More on that later.
By Tuesday night, as an upper-air disturbance moves into the western Gulf of Mexico and a separate area of weak low pressure develops off the Carolina coast, we expect areas of heavier precipitation to break out from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. This will bring the potential for heavier snowfall and/or ice accumulation in these areas, again depending on the precise vertical temperature profile in the atmosphere.
Precipitation should end west of the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday morning, but Wednesday will see precipitation lingering from central and northern Florida to southeast Virginia. While wintry precipitation will probably stay north of the Florida/Georgia border (though not by far), leaving the Florida Peninsula just wet, there could be additional snow and ice accumulations from south Georgia northeastward.

Where, How Much, and How Bad?

Snowfall Forecast

Significant Icing

Forecasting snow and ice accumulations in the Deep South is, as you might expect, always tricky.
There are two main factors contributing to the uncertainty this time:

How far south will the entire atmosphere be below freezing, allowing for pure snow?
How far inland will the precipitation fall?

Computer models continue to differ on the exact placement of the heaviest snow and ice accumulations.
This does appear to be a fairly moisture-loaded system for areas along the coasts, so snow and ice accumulations could be quite heavy, particularly from central and south Georgia to the eastern Carolinas.
Greatest Icing Threat: Right now, it appears the most significant icing is possible from southeast Louisiana to south Alabama, south Georgia and coastal South Carolina. This could lead to falling limbs, trees, and significant power outages.

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Powhatan, Va.

The Weather Channel Meteorologist Mike Seidel snapped this picture from Powhatan, Virginia on Thursday, January 17, 2013.

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Bristol, Virginia

A Food City employee uses an umbrella to stay dry as she goes to work during a heavy snowfall Thursday afternoon in Bristol, Va. as shoppers make a last-minute trip to the grocery store. (AP Photo/The Bristol Herald-Courier,Andre Teague)

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