SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Departing Sunspot/M5.9-Flare/CME(June 9th, 2013).

Skyywatcher88 Published on Jun 8, 2013

M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: At the end of the day on June 7th (2249 UT) departing sunspot AR1762 unleashed a strong M5.9-class solar flare. Because of the sunspot's location on the sun's southwestern limb, the blast was not particulary geoeffective. X-radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, but only briefly, while a CME that flew away from the blast site is expected to miss our planet entirely.

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STORM WARNING: NOAA estimates a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 9th when a CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras ********************************************************************************* NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image	NOAA Scales Activity
	Range 1 (minor) to 5 (extreme)
	NOAA Scale	Past 24 hours	Current
	Geomagnetic Storms *
	Solar Radiation Storms
	Radio Blackouts

Satellite Environment Plot

GOES Solar X-ray Flux

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SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity. SIDC (RWC-Belgium) Daily Encoded data (ISES) SIDC Ursigram meu FormatMail headerSIDC code

Source

Frequency

:Issued: 2013 Jun 08 1247 UTC
:Product: documentation  
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30608
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jun 2013, 1206UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Jun 2013 until 10 Jun 2013)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jun 2013  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jun 2013  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2013  10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 008
COMMENT:Solar activity is low, with only three C-class flares and one
M-class flare
detected in last 24 hours.  The M5.9 flare peaking at 22:49 UT on June 07
originated from the Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) situated at
that moment at the west solar limb, and was associated with a CME. From the
currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass was
directed mostly southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not
probable that the CME will arrive at the Earth.   Fast growing Catania
sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) which currently has beta-gamma
configurations of its photospheric magnetic field, has a significant
potential to produce a C-class flares, and possibly also M-class flares.
The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT, and the solar
wind speed is currently 450 km/s. The arrival of the fast flow from the
small equatorial coronal hole is expected today without significant
geomagnetic impact. A CME-driven shock wave associated with the M1.3 flare
on June 05, might be expected on June 09 producing at most unsettled
geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
during following 48 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 017, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 07 Jun 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 066
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 025
ESTIMATED AP           : 033
ESTIMATED ISN          : 032, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
07  2211  2249 2304 ////// M5.9          92/1762      VI/1 
END**********************************************************************

M5.9 Solar Flare & G2 Geomagnetic Storm - June 7, 2013

SolarWatcher

Published on Jun 7, 2013

A moderately strong solar flare reaching M5.9 was observed Friday evening (6/7/2013) around Sunspot 1762 off the southwest limb. Because of the location near the limb, any associated CME would be directed mostly away from Earth.

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Secrets Of The Feds

**ALERT**: SUPER SOLAR STORM Could Leave NATIONS WITHOUT POWER ‘FOR MONTHS’

A power outage could leave Western nations without electricity for months in the event of a strong geomagnetic storm, a new report claims, adding that it is “almost inevitable in the future” while the sun is approaching the peak of its solar cycle. It is a known fact that solar activity is interconnected with the our planet’s geomagnetic fields that are known to affect life on Earth, including widespread electrical disruptions. Currently the Sun’s activity is ramping up toward what is known as solar maximum as the peak of the 11-year solar cycle is expected in 2015.

According to the report, produced by Lloyd’s in cooperation with Atmospheric and Environmental research (AER), super solar storms normally occur approximately every 150 years, the last being the Carrington Event in 1859 – a geomagnetic storm that caused disruptions in telegraph lines all over the world and the brightest auroras. However that was long before people were so dependent on electricity. The report outlines a doomsday scenario – the cancellation of the services the public has come to depend upon every day. For example, the systems for controlling air-traffic would stop, potentially grounding entire fleets. The satellites that power the world’s telecoms networks would be knocked out. Hospital patients dependent on electrical equipment would be put at risk.

Aurora.Reuters / Lehtikuva / Pekka Sakki

This could lead to liability claims if customers believe companies did not take enough protective measures during a blackout, which would have significant implications for the insurance industry.   Read Full Article Here *******************************************************************************

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